Nigeria’s GDP Growth Rate Declines Further to 3.86% in First Quarter

Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate further declined to 3.86 percent in the first quarter of the year (Q1 2015) compared to 5.94 percent the previous quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Also, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation rose further to 8.7 per cent in April compared to 8.5 percent in March.However, the country’s GDP growth rate was lower by 2.25 percent points from the preceding quarter and by 1.98 per cent from the corresponding quarter of 2014. According to the GDP first quarter report released yesterday by the statistical agency, Quarter on quarter, real GDP was lower by 11.57 per cent.Nominal GDP in Q1 2015 was estimated at N21.04 trillion compared to N24.20 trillion in Q4 as well as N20.16 trillion in the corresponding quarter of 2014.

The NBS stated that relative to the preceding quarter value of N24.20 trillion, nominal growth was lower by 13.07 per cent.
It further noted that the depressed global oil prices, as well as challenges in supply in the country prevailed over the period under review as oil production stood at 2.18 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q1 of 2015, remaining at the same level as it was in the preceding quarter, and 0.08mbpd lower than the 2.24mbpd recorded in Q1 of 2014.

It said oil sector contribution to GDP was negative at -8.15ercent, representing further decline of 1.55 percent from -6.60 per cent in Q1 2014.

“Nonetheless, quarter on quarter growth remained positive, at 3.08 per cent As a share of the economy, the Oil sector repre- sented 10.45 per cent of total real GDP, down 1.38 per cent points from the 11.83% recorded a year earlier, yet up 1.49 per cent from the 8.97 per cent recorded in Q4 of 2014,” it added.

However, it stated that growth in the non-oil sector was largely driven by the activities of trade, crop production, other services, construction and telecommunications.

The non-oil sector grew by 5.59 percent in real terms in Q1 2015, representing a decline of 2.62 per cent when compared to the 8.21 per cent recorded the previous year as well as a decline of 0.85 per cent from the value of 6.44 percent recorded the preceding quarter.
Meanwhile, the NBS attributed the 0.2 per cent increase in headline index to faster pace of increases in the food and core sub- indices.

Core inflation “increased at a faster pace for the fourth consecutive month. Prices rose by 7.7 percent (year-on-year), up by 0.2 percentage points from 7.5 percent in March with the strongest increases recorded in the Clothing and Footwear, Furnishings and Household Equipment Maintenance; and Restaurants and Hotels Divisions.” It said:”On a month-on-month basis, the highest price increases were recorded in the potatoes, yam and other tubers, oils and fats and bread and cereal groups. The average annual rate of change of the food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending in April 2015 over the previous twelve month average was 9.5 percent. The twelve month rate of change has held steady for eleven consecutive months.” (Thisday)